Scouting Tool Guide Part 5: Red Chip Draft Status Criteria

This series of posts form a detailed guide to my Madden 17 CFM Scouting Tool, which can be downloaded from this location:

http://www.operationsports.com/forums/madden-nfl-football/893155-scouting-tool-madden-17-cfm.html

  1. Part 1: Introduction
  2. Part 2: Data Input
  3. Part 3: Scouting Tips
  4. Part 4: Blue Chip Criteria
  5. Part 5: Red Chip Criteria
  6. Part 6: Off-Season Planning
  7. Part 7: Draft Day

Introduction

The new draft class tuning (which came out in October 2016) means you will have to accept the fact you will be very lucky to get a whole class of 75+ OVR (blue chip) players any more, so finding depth and value late in the draft is crucial. This is where the red chip criteria come into play.

The red chip scouting criteria below are a more lenient version of the blue chip criteria detailed in the previous post and aim to unearth players who are between about 70 and 74 OVR. I have detailed the red chip scouting criteria I use in the tool for each position to determine if they should be drafted, and given an approximation of the % Predictive Power (probability that player will be at least 70 OVR) and the % Missed Opportunities (probability that the tool will tell you not to draft a prospect that turns out to be 70+ OVR player). I’ve based this on about 30 simulated draft classes where I (and some kind users who uploaded their completed sheets to the Operation Sports thread) painstakingly recorded all of the players’ skills and combine stats pre-draft and then compared them to their real stats in-game after the draft finished. The tool is the culmination of a heck of a lot of testing and trial and error, though as you’ll see below, isn’t completely fool proof. Some positions are “riskier” than others, so please keep that in mind when drafting and don’t lynch me if the tool tells you to draft a player who turns out to be a 69 OVR or tells you not to draft a player who turns out to be a 74. You’re still massively, massively better off with this tool and without it, and, on average, you will be drafting plenty of starters every year despite the odd miss here and there.

Red Chip Criteria

Quarterbacks

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B+
  • Throwing Power at least B+
  • One B- from Short Throw Accuracy, Mid Throw Accuracy or Deep Throw Accuracy.
  • Minimum grade B-

Predictive Power: 85%

Missed Opportunities: 5%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

You might find some weak armed but extremely accurate red chip QBs end up being up to 78 OVR, so if you find one you really like that fits your scheme, don’t be too hesitant to draft them early.

Halfback

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B
  • One B from Carrying, Trucking, Elusiveness or Ball Carrier Vision.
  • 4.76 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • Minimum grade B-

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 5%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

Unfortunately, the odd scrub speed back can slip through the net with these criteria. My advice is to be careful about drafting late round speed backs unless they have exceptional physicals. But on the other end of the scale, you might find some bigger, slower power backs that fail on some of the blue chip combine checks end up being anything up to 78 OVR.

Fullback

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • One B- from Carrying or a C+ from Run Blocking, or a C from Impact Blocking
  • Minimum grade C-

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 25%

Blue Chip Fallers: <5%

Tight End

Scouting Criteria:

  • EITHER One B- from Catching, Catch in Traffic or Spectacular Catch AND Minimum Grade C+
  • OR Run Blocking at least C+ AND at least 20 Bench Press reps AND Minimum Grade D.
  • 4.96 or less on the 40 yard dash.

Predictive Power: 75%

Missed Opportunities: 25%

Blue Chip Fallers: 10%

OK so Tight End is by far the hardest position to scout for red chip players. There is some actual Excel witch craft at play in the tool to do two separate series of checks depending on whether a prospect appears to be a blocking or receiving TE. Unfortunately, the odd scrub receiving TE will slip through and a few decent red chip standard TEs will be designated as Do Not Draft. It’s the worst position for the tool, and I did my best, it’s just a hard position to scout unfortunately.

Wide Receiver

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • 4.66 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • Minimum grade B-.

Predictive Power: 90%

Missed Opportunities: 5%

Blue Chip Fallers: 20%

With Wideouts, you’ll find that some really good ones end up being red chippers because they just fail on one blue chip check. I upped the blue chip criteria for V3 to give more certainty about drafting elite receivers, but the consequence is that there are quite a few red chippers who turn out to be up to 78 or 79 overall. So keep this in mind if you’re drafting WRs.

Left Tackle

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B- grade
  • Must have at least two C+ grades
  • Pass Blocking at least C+
  • At least 27 reps on the bench press
  • Minimum grade C-

Predictive Power: 85%

Missed Opportunities: 15%

Blue Chip Fallers: 5%

Guard

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B- grade
  • At least two C+ grades
  • At least 28 reps on the bench press
  • Minimum grade C-

Predictive Power: 90%

Missed Opportunities: 15%

Blue Chip Fallers: 20%

As with the blue chippers, red chip guards are hard to scout. You’ll find there are a few decent ones the tool says not to draft, but on the flipside, you’ll find some decent players who slip out the of the blue chip lounge for one reason or another.

Center

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • Must have at least two C+ grades
  • At least 25 reps on the bench press
  • 5.50 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • Minimum grade C

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 15%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

Right Tackle

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • At least 25 reps on the bench press
  • Minimum grade C-

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 10%

Blue Chip Fallers: 10%

RT is a funny position at red chip levels, because you have two very distinct types of players: huge, strong RTs, and smaller, weaker, but more agile RTs. This is why the tool now checks for 3 cone and shuttle sum times at red chip level.

Defensive End

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B
  • One B- from Pursuit, Block Shedding, Finesse Moves or Power Moves.
  • At least 23 bench press reps.
  • Minimum grade C
  • Talent Round must not equal Undrafted

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 20%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

DEs are tough to draft at red chip level, and these checks are based on pretty limited sample sizes as DEs tend to be either elite or scrub and not much in between. Keep this in mind!

Defensive Tackle

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • One B- from Tackle, Power Moves or Block Shedding
  • At least 26 reps on the bench press
  • 5.2 or less on the 40 yard dash
  • Minimum grade C+
  • Talent round must not equal Undrafted

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 15%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

Outside Linebacker

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least two B- grades
  • One B- from Block Shedding, Power Moves, or Finesse Moves
  • Minimum grade C+

Predictive Power: 75%

Missed Opportunities: 10%

Blue Chip Fallers: 20%

OLB is a tough position to draft at red chip. My advice is if you find a red chip coverage OLB with a high TVR, they’re probably pretty good, since coverage OLBs sometimes struggle to pass blue chip checks.

Middle Linebacker

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B
  • Tackle at least a B-
  • Minimum grade B-

Predictive Power: 90%

Missed Opportunities: 10%

Blue Chip Fallers: 5%

Cornerback

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B-
  • One C+ from Zone Coverage or Man Coverage.
  • 4.66 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • Minimum grade C
  • Talent Round must not equal Undrafted

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 5%

Blue Chip Fallers: 25%

You’ll find a lot of blue chip fallers at the CB position as some very good zone coverage CBs are too slow and too poor at Man Coverage and Press to make it as blue chippers. Keep this in mind, particularly if you run a lot of zone defense.

Free Safety

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one B
  • Must have at least two C+
  • Zone Coverage at least C+
  • 4.67 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • At least 32″ on the vertical leap.
  • Minimum grade C+

Predictive Power: 80%

Missed Opportunities: 20%

Blue Chip Fallers: 20%

Strong Safety

Scouting Criteria:

  • At least one B- grade
  • One C+ from Zone Coverage, Play Recognition, Pursuit, or Tackle
  • 4.71 or less on the 40 yard dash.
  • At least 32″ on the vertical leap.
  • Minimum grade C

Predictive Power: 70%

Missed Opportunities: 25%

Blue Chip Fallers: 15%

SS is the second hardest position to scout for red chip players after TE. You’ll find a few 69ers slipping in amongst the red chips I’m afraid. I’m working to make the criteria better, but need more data as I have a pretty limited sample size of red chip-standard Strong Safeties currently.

Kickers and Punters

Scouting Criteria:

  • Must have at least one A-
  • Kick Power at least A-
  • Kick Accuracy at least A-
  • Minimum grade F

Predictive Power: 90%*

Missed Opportunities: 15%*

* Based on a very limited sample size at these positions. But as with FBs, you’re probably better off saving your picks and finding kickers/punters from free agency after the draft.

Conclusion

So those are the red chip criteria. The tool will automatically check against these to ensure you spend your scouting points wisely and can correctly designate players as mid-value prospects.

Navigation

 < Previous Post in the Series: Part 4: Blue Chip Criteria | Next Post in the Series: Part 6: Off-Season Planning>

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